Background: DNA methylation patterns associated with habitual diet have not been well studied. Methods: Diet quality was characterized using a Mediterranean-style diet score and the Alternative Healthy Eating Index score. We conducted ethnicity-specific and trans-ethnic epigenome-wide association analyses for diet quality and leukocyte-derived DNA methylation at over 400 000 CpGs (cytosine-guanine dinucleotides) in 5 population-based cohorts including 6662 European ancestry, 2702 African ancestry, and 360 Hispanic ancestry participants. For diet-associated CpGs identified in epigenome-wide analyses, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to examine their relations to cardiovascular disease risk factors and examined their longitudinal associations with all-cause mortality. Results: We identified 30 CpGs associated with either Mediterranean-style diet score or Alternative Healthy Eating Index, or both, in European ancestry participants. Among these CpGs, 12 CpGs were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (Bonferroni corrected P<1.6×10-3). Hypermethylation of cg18181703 (SOCS3) was associated with higher scores of both Mediterranean-style diet score and Alternative Healthy Eating Index and lower risk for all-cause mortality (P=5.7×10-15). Ten additional diet-associated CpGs were nominally associated with all-cause mortality (P<0.05). MR analysis revealed 8 putatively causal associations for 6 CpGs with 4 cardiovascular disease risk factors (body mass index, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, and type 2 diabetes mellitus; Bonferroni corrected MR P<4.5×10-4). For example, hypermethylation of cg11250194 (FADS2) was associated with lower triglyceride concentrations (MR, P=1.5×10-14).and hypermethylation of cg02079413 (SNORA54; NAP1L4) was associated with body mass index (corrected MR, P=1×10-6). Conclusions: Habitual diet quality was associated with differential peripheral leukocyte DNA methylation levels of 30 CpGs, most of which were also associated with multiple health outcomes, in European ancestry individuals. These findings demonstrate that integrative genomic analysis of dietary information may reveal molecular targets for disease prevention and treatment.

Aim: We conducted a methylome-wide association study to examine associations between DNA methylation in whole blood and central adiposity and body fat distribution, measured as waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio adjusted for body mass index, in 2684 African-American adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Materials & methods: We validated significantly associated cytosine-phosphate-guanine methylation sites (CpGs) among adults using the Women's Health Initiative and Framingham Heart Study participants (combined n = 5743) and generalized associations in adolescents from The Raine Study (n = 820). Results & conclusion: We identified 11 CpGs that were robustly associated with one or more central adiposity trait in adults and two in adolescents, including CpG site associations near TXNIP, ADCY7, SREBF1 and RAP1GAP2 that had not previously been associated with obesity-related traits.

Fathers are more than social accidents. Research has demonstrated that fathers matter to children's development. Despite noted progress, challenges remain on how best to conceptualize and assess fathering and father–child relationships. The current monograph is the result of an SRCD-sponsored meeting of fatherhood scholars brought together to discuss these challenges and make recommendations for best practices for incorporating fathers in studies on parenting and children's development. The first aim of this monograph was to provide a brief update on the current state of research on fathering and to lay out a developmental ecological systems perspective as a conceptual framework for understanding the different spaces fathers inhabit in their children's lives. Because there is wide variability in fathers’ roles, the ecological systems perspective situates fathers, mothers, children, and other caregivers within an evolving network of interrelated social relationships in which children and their parents change over time and space (e.g., residence). The second aim was to present examples of empirical studies conducted by members of the international working group that highlighted different methods, data collection, and statistical analyses used to capture the variability in father–child relationships. The monograph ends with a commentary that elaborates on the ecological systems framework with a discussion of the broader macrosystem and social-contextual influences that impinge on fathers and their children. The collection of articles contributes to research on father–child relationships by advancing theory and presenting varied methods and analysis strategies that assist in understanding the father–child relationship and its impact on child development.

<p>Background: Immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) is a potentially fatal hematologic disorder characterized by thrombocytopenia, microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, and ischemic organ impairment. The incidence of iTTP is higher among African-Americans (AA), however, differences in presentation and outcomes have not been fully investigated. In a multi-center cohort of patients with iTTP from the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathy (USTMA) Consortium, we tested the hypothesis that AA race is an independent predictor of poor outcomes including iTTP related mortality and relapse.</p>

Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

Suboptimal ambient temperature exposure significantly affects public health. Previous studies have primarily focused on risk assessment, with few examining the health outcomes from an economic perspective. To inform environmental health policies, we estimated the economic costs of health outcomes associated with suboptimal temperature in the Minneapolis/St. Paul Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate attributable fractions/cases for mortality, emergency department visits, and emergency hospitalizations at various suboptimal temperature levels. The analyses were stratified by age group (i.e., youth (0–19 years), adult (20–64 years), and senior (65+ years)). We considered both direct medical costs and loss of productivity during economic cost assessment. Results show that youth have a large number of temperature-related emergency department visits, while seniors have large numbers of temperature-related mortality and emergency hospitalizations. Exposures to extremely low and high temperatures lead to $2.70 billion [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): $1.91 billion, $3.48 billion](costs are all based on 2016 USD value)economic costs annually. Moderately and extremely low and high temperature leads to $9.40 billion [eCI: $6.05 billion, $12.57 billion]economic costs. The majority of the economic costs are consistently attributed to cold (>75%), rather than heat exposures and to mortality (>95%), rather than morbidity. Our findings support prioritizing temperature-related health interventions designed to minimize the economic costs by targeting seniors and to reduce attributable cases by targeting youth.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected.

© 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society. Introduction: Migration of men who have sex with men (MSM) from rural to urban areas is common across low- and middle-income countries and is widely believed to contribute to elevated HIV risk among migrant MSM in urban areas. Little consensus exists on whether their risk is due to their transplantation or their being from resource-constrained rural areas. This study seeks to clarify the relationship between migration and HIV risks by comparing differences in HIV-related risky sexual behaviours and healthcare utilization across competing conceptualizations of migratory statuses. Methods: In July 2016, MSM ≥16 years old currently residing in one of eight urban cities in China were recruited for an online cross-sectional survey, which collected information on socio-demographics, sexual behaviours, HIV care-seeking behaviours, and healthcare utilization. Based on a question about residency status, each participant was classified as an urban local resident, urban transplant, or rural transplant. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the associations between risky behaviours and healthcare utilization among these three groups. Results: Among 2007 MSM, the proportion of local, urban transplant and rural transplant were 32% (648/2007), 24% (478/2007), and 44% (881/2007), respectively. Compared with urban local resident MSM, urban transplant MSM were more likely to have ever tested for HIV (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08 to 1.80). Compared with urban transplant MSM, rural transplant MSM were less likely to have utilized any governmental sexual health services in the past three months (aOR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.93), ever tested for HIV (aOR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.96), ever initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) (aOR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.52), and ever purchased sex (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.38 to 0.85). No other significant differences were found in sexual behaviours among three groups. Conclusions: The widely used local/migrant categorization obscures important differences in HIV risk present between urban/rural subgroups among them. Previous studies of HIV risks in Chinese "migrant" may have failed to consider the role of structural factors such as discrimination or barriers to healthcare when interpreting their findings of higher HIV prevalence in this population. Low ART uptake among rural transplant MSM in this study is particularly concerning and underscore the need for HIV-related interventions tailored for this group.

Background The genetic architecture of birth size may differ geographically and over time. We examined differences in the genetic and environmental contributions to birthweight, length and ponderal index (PI) across geographical-cultural regions (Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia) and across birth cohorts, and how gestational age modifies these effects. Methods Data from 26 twin cohorts in 16 countries including 57 613 monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs were pooled. Genetic and environmental variations of birth size were estimated using genetic structural equation modelling. Results The variance of birthweight and length was predominantly explained by shared environmental factors, whereas the variance of PI was explained both by shared and unique environmental factors. Genetic variance contributing to birth size was small. Adjusting for gestational age decreased the proportions of shared environmental variance and increased the propositions of unique environmental variance. Genetic variance was similar in the geographical-cultural regions, but shared environmental variance was smaller in East Asia than in Europe and North America and Australia. The total variance and shared environmental variance of birth length and PI were greater from the birth cohort 1990-99 onwards compared with the birth cohorts from 1970-79 to 1980-89. Conclusions The contribution of genetic factors to birth size is smaller than that of shared environmental factors, which is partly explained by gestational age. Shared environmental variances of birth length and PI were greater in the latest birth cohorts and differed also across geographical-cultural regions. Shared environmental factors are important when explaining differences in the variation of birth size globally and over time.

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure–response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998–2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007–2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st–3rd and 97th–99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure.

Interference occurs when the treatment (or exposure) of one individual affects the outcomes of others. In some settings it may be reasonable to assume individuals can be partitioned into clusters such that there is no interference between individuals in different clusters, i.e., there is partial interference. In observational studies with partial interference, inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators have been proposed of different possible treatment effects. However, the validity of IPW estimators depends on the propensity score being known or correctly modeled. Alternatively, one can estimate the treatment effect using an outcome regression model. In this paper, we propose doubly robust (DR) estimators which utilize both models and are consistent and asymptotically normal if either model, but not necessarily both, is correctly specified. Empirical results are presented to demonstrate the DR property of the proposed estimators, as well as the efficiency gain of DR over IPW estimators when both models are correctly specified. The different estimators are illustrated using data from a study examining the effects of cholera vaccination in Bangladesh.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >250 loci for body mass index (BMI), implicating pathways related to neuronal biology. Most GWAS loci represent clusters of common, noncoding variants from which pinpointing causal genes remains challenging. Here we combined data from 718,734 individuals to discover rare and low-frequency (minor allele frequency (MAF) < 5%) coding variants associated with BMI. We identified 14 coding variants in 13 genes, of which 8 variants were in genes (ZBTB7B, ACHE, RAPGEF3, RAB21, ZFHX3, ENTPD6, ZFR2 and ZNF169) newly implicated in human obesity, 2 variants were in genes (MC4R and KSR2) previously observed to be mutated in extreme obesity and 2 variants were in GIPR. The effect sizes of rare variants are ~10 times larger than those of common variants, with the largest effect observed in carriers of an MC4R mutation introducing a stop codon (p.Tyr35Ter, MAF = 0.01%), who weighed ~7 kg more than non-carriers. Pathway analyses based on the variants associated with BMI confirm enrichment of neuronal genes and provide new evidence for adipocyte and energy expenditure biology, widening the potential of genetically supported therapeutic targets in obesity.

Background Tobacco taxation and smoke-free workplaces reduce smoking, tobacco-related premature deaths and associated out-of- pocket health care expenditures. We examine the distributional consequences of a price increase in tobacco products through an excise tax hike, and of an implementation of smoke-free workplaces, in China. Methods We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the male population (the large majority of Chinese smokers), the premature deaths averted, the change in tax revenues generated, and the financial risk protection procured (eg, poverty cases averted, defined as the number of individuals no longer facing tobacco-related out-of-pocket expenditures for disease treatment, that would otherwise impoverish them), that would follow a 75% increase in cigarette prices through substantial increments in excise tax fully passed onto consumers, and a nationwide total implementation of workplace smoking bans. Results A 75% increase in cigarette prices would avert about 24 million premature deaths among the current Chinese male population, with a third among the bottom income quintile, increase additional tax revenues by US$ 46 billion annually, and prevent around 9 million poverty cases, 19% of which among the bottom income quintile. Implementation of smoking bans in workplaces would avert about 12 million premature deaths, with a fifth among the bottom income quintile, decrease tax revenues by US$ 7 billion annually, and prevent around 4 million poverty cases, 12% of which among the bottom income quintile. Conclusions Increased excise taxes on tobacco products and workplace smoking bans can procure large health and economic benefits to the Chinese population, especially among the poor.

© 2017 The Author(s). Background: HIV testing for marginalized populations is critical to controlling the HIV epidemic. However, the HIV testing rate among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China remains low. Crowdsourcing, the process of shifting individual tasks to a group, has been increasingly adopted in public health programs and may be a useful tool for spurring innovation in HIV testing campaigns. We designed a multi-site study to develop a crowdsourced HIV test promotion campaign and evaluate its effectiveness against conventional campaigns among MSM in China. Methods: This study will use an adaptation of the stepped wedge, randomized controlled trial design. A total of eight major metropolitan cities in China will be randomized to sequentially initiate interventions at 3-month intervals. The intervention uses crowdsourcing at multiple steps to sustain crowd contribution. Approximately 1280 MSM, who are 16 years of age or over, live in the intervention city, have not been tested for HIV in the past 3 mmonths, and are not living with HIV, will be recruited. Recruitment will take place through banner advertisements on a large gay dating app along with other social media platforms. Participants will complete one follow-up survey every 3 months for 12 months to evaluate their HIV testing uptake in the past 3 months and secondary outcomes including syphilis testing, sex without condoms, community engagement, testing stigma, and other related outcomes. Discussion: MSM HIV testing rates remain poor in China. Innovative methods to promote HIV testing are urgently needed. With a large-scale, stepped wedge, randomized controlled trial our study can improve understanding of crowdsourcing's long-term effectiveness in public health campaigns, expand HIV testing coverage among a key population, and inform intervention design in related public health fields. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02796963. Registered on 23 May 2016.

Background Sustained viral suppression through ART reduces sexual HIV transmission risk, but may require routine access to reliable and effective medical care which may be difficult to obtain in resource constrained areas. We investigated the roles of patient load and travel distance to HIV care clinic on transmission risk in HIV serodiscordant couples in Henan Province, China. Methods Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare HIV transmission events across couples living near, medium, or farther distances from their assigned HIV care clinics, as well as those attending clinics where clinicians bore high versus low patient loads. Results Most (84 · 4%) of the 3695 serodiscordant couples lived within 10 kilometers of their assigned HIV clinic, and most (73 · 5%) attended clinics with patient-to-provider ratios of at least 100:1. In adjusted Cox models, attending clinics where clinicians bore average patient loads of 100 or more elevated HIV transmission risk (aHR, 1 · 50, 95% CI, 1 · 00-4 · 84), an effect amplified in village tier clinics (aHR = 1 · 55; 95% CI, 1 · 23-6 · 78). Travel distance was associated with HIV transmission only after stratification; traveling medium distances to village clinics (5-10km) increased transmission risk (aHR = 1 · 83, 95% CI, 1 · 04-3 · 21) whereas traveling longer distances to township or county level clinics lowered transmission risk (aHR = 0 · 10, 95% CI, 0 · 01-0 · 75). Conclusion Higher patient loads at HIV clinics was associated with risk of HIV transmission in our population, particularly at village level clinics. Farther travel distance had divergent effects based on clinic tier, suggesting unique mechanisms operating across levels of resource availability. The resource intensity of long-term HIV treatment may place significant strains on small rural clinics, for which investments in additional support staff or time-saving tools such as point-of-care laboratory testing may bring about impactful change in treatment outcomes.This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Synaptic transmission and its activity-dependent modulation, known as synaptic plasticity, are fundamental processes in the nervous system function. Neurons may receive thousands of synaptic contacts, but synaptic regulation may occur only at individual or discrete subsets of synapses, which may have important consequences on the spatial extension of the modulation of synaptic information. Moreover, while several electrophysiological methods are used to assess synaptic transmission at different levels of observation, i.e, through local field potential and individual whole-cell recordings, their experimental limitations to detect synapse-specific modulation is poorly defined. We have investigated how well-known synapse-specific short-term plasticity, where some synapses are regulated and others left unregulated, mediated by astrocytes and endocannabinoid signaling can be assessed at different observational levels. Using hippocampal slices, we have combined local field potential and whole-cell recordings of CA3-CA1 synaptic activity evoked by Schaffer collateral stimulation of either multiple or single synapses through bulk or minimal stimulation, respectively, to test the ability to detect short-term synaptic changes induced by endocannabinoid signaling. We also developed a mathematical model assuming a bimodal distribution of regulated and unregulated synapses based on realistic experimental data to simulate physiological results and to predict the experimental requirements of the different recording methods to detect discrete changes in subsets of synapses. We show that endocannabinoid-induced depolarization-induced suppression of excitation (DSE) and astrocyte-mediated synaptic potentiation can be observed when monitoring single or few synapses, but are statistically concealed when recording the activity of a large number of synapses. These results indicate that the electrophysiological methodology is critical to properly assess synaptic changes occurring in subsets of synapses, and they suggest that relevant synapse-specific regulatory phenomena may be experimentally undetected but may have important implications in the spatial extension of synaptic plasticity phenomena.