Total Results: 117
Patrick, Megan E.; Kloska, Deborah D.; Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Lee, Christine M.; O’Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2018.
Patterns of simultaneous and concurrent alcohol and marijuana use among adolescents.
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© 2017 Taylor & Francis Background: Alcohol and marijuana are the most commonly used substances among adolescents but little is known about patterns of co-use. Objectives: This study examined patterns of concurrent (not overlapping) and simultaneous (overlapping) use of alcohol and marijuana among adolescents. Methods: Data from US-national samples of 12th graders (N = 84,805, 48.4% female) who participated in the Monitoring the Future study from 1976 to 2016 and who used alcohol and/or marijuana in the past 12 months were used to identify latent classes of alcohol use, marijuana use, and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use. Results: A four-class solution indicated four patterns of use among adolescents: (1) Simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use with binge drinking and recent marijuana use (SAM-Heavier Use; 11.2%); (2) SAM use without binge drinking and with recent marijuana use (SAM-Lighter Use; 21.6%); (3) Marijuana use and alcohol use but no SAM use (Concurrent Use; 10.7%); and (4) Alcohol use but no marijuana or SAM use (Alcohol-Only Use; 56.4%). Membership in either SAM use class was associated with a higher likelihood of truancy, evenings out, and use of illicit drugs other than marijuana. SAM-Heavier Use, compared to SAM-Lighter Use, class members were more likely to report these behaviors and be male, and less likely to have college plans. Conclusions: Among 12th graders who use both alcohol and marijuana, the majority use simultaneously, although not all use heavily. Given the recognized increased public health risks associated with simultaneous use, adolescent prevention programming should include focus on particular risks of simultaneous use.
Evans-Polce, Rebecca J.; Patrick, Megan E.; Lanza, Stephanie T.; Miech, Richard A.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2018.
Reasons for Vaping Among U.S. 12th Graders.
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Introduction: Vaping has recently increased in popularity among adolescents. Little is known about heterogeneity of vapers, particularly in terms of why they vape. Identifying major subgroups of adolescent vapers by reasons for vaping is important to understand adolescent vaping behavior and to identify those most at risk for other substance use. Methods: Monitoring Future data from 2015 and 2016 were used in a latent class analysis to identify subgroups of 12th graders based on their endorsement of 10 potential reasons for vaping. Multinomial regression with a latent class outcome was used to predict class membership. Results: Three distinct classes of vapers were identified: adolescents who were (1) Vaping to Experiment (29.4%), (2) Vaping to Replace Cigarettes (7.3%), and (3) Vaping for Taste + Entertainment (63.4%). Vaping only flavors was associated with lower odds of membership and cigarette use was associated with higher odds of membership in the Vaping to Replace Cigarettes subgroup, and marijuana was associated with lower odds of membership in the Vaping to Experiment subgroup, compared with the Vaping for Taste + Entertainment subgroup. Conclusions: This study identified multiple subgroups of vapers based on reasons for vaping. Whereas a small subgroup vaped for reasons related to cigarette use, most adolescent vapers reported vaping for reasons unrelated to cigarette use. There were considerable differences in primary reasons for vaping and risk for traditional cigarette and other substance use, suggesting different intervention strategies may be needed for different subgroups of vapers.
Vasilenko, Sara A.; Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N.; Lanza, Stephanie T.; Patrick, Megan E.
2018.
Sexual Behavior and Heavy Episodic Drinking Across the Transition to Adulthood: Differences by College Attendance.
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© 2017 Society for Research on Adolescence. Despite a growing literature on college students' sexual behaviors, little is known about how sexual behaviors, and their associations with alcohol, differ for college and noncollege attenders, and whether these patterns represent changes during college or an extension of pre-college behaviors. This paper applied time-varying effect models to data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to examine (1) prevalence of four sexual behaviors from ages 14 to 24 and (2) how their association with frequent heavy episodic drinking varied across these ages for college and noncollege attenders. Nonattenders have higher prevalence of all sexual behaviors than college attenders across most ages; however, the association between heavy episodic drinking and sexual behaviors is stronger for college attenders during ages 18-20.
Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Patrick, Megan E.
2018.
Simultaneous Alcohol and Marijuana Use Among Young Adult Drinkers: Age-Specific Changes in Prevalence from 1977 to 2016.
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BACKGROUND The overall prevalence of U.S. young adult alcohol use has decreased, but little is known about historical change in related behaviors such as simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use that may increase alcohol-related risks and societal costs. The purpose of this paper was to examine historical change in SAM use prevalence among U.S. young adult alcohol users from 1977 to 2016, and consider the extent to which observed historical change in SAM use among alcohol users reflects co-occurring change in marijuana use during these years. METHODS Data on past 12-month alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use at up to 6 modal ages (19/20, 21/22, 23/24, 25/26, 27/28, and 29/30) were collected from 11,789 individuals (45.0% men) participating in the Monitoring the Future panel study. Annual prevalence estimates within modal age group were obtained; historical SAM use trends among alcohol and marijuana users were estimated. RESULTS From 2014 to 2016, SAM use was reported by approximately 30% of alcohol users aged 19/20 and 21/22, and 20 to 25% of alcohol users aged 23/24 through 29/30. Since the mid-1990s, age-specific historical trends in SAM use prevalence among alcohol users followed 1 of 4 patterns: significant increase followed by oscillating increases/decreases (at modal age 19/20), consistent and significant increases (at modal ages 21/22, 23/24, and 25/26), stability followed by increase (at modal ages 27/28), or stability (at modal ages 29/30). In contrast, SAM use trends among marijuana users primarily reflected stability, with some evidence of a decrease across time at modal ages 19/20 and 23/24. Historical change in SAM prevalence among alcohol users was strongly and positively correlated with changes in overall marijuana use prevalence. CONCLUSIONS A growing proportion of early and mid-young adult alcohol users reported SAM use, with the highest risk among those in the early years of young adulthood. Young adult SAM use may continue to increase in proportion to the degree that young adult marijuana use continues to increase.
Joy Jang, Bohyun; Patrick, Megan E.; Schuler, Megan S.
2018.
Substance Use Behaviors and the Timing of Family Formation During Young Adulthood.
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© 2017, © The Author(s) 2017. The impact of substance use on the life course of young adults can be substantial, yet few studies have examined to what extent early adult substance use behaviors are related to the timing of family formation, independent of confounding factors from adolescence. Using panel data from the Monitoring the Future study (N~20,000), the current study examined the associations between three substance use behaviors (i.e., cigarette use, binge drinking, and marijuana use) and the timing of family formation events in young adulthood. Survival analysis and propensity score weighting addressed preexisting differences between substance users and nonusers in the estimation of the timing of union formation (i.e., marriage, cohabitation) and parenthood. Results for young adult substance users showed general patterns of reduced rates of marriage and parenthood and increased cohabitation during young adulthood. Variations were evident by substance and sex.
Tang, Sandra; Patrick, Megan E.
2018.
Technology and interactive social media use among 8th and 10th graders in the U.S. and associations with homework and school grades.
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This study examined differences by age, gender, and race/ethnicity in the use of technology and interactive social media from 2013 to 2016 using data from nationally-representative samples of U.S. 8th and 10th graders (N = 40,389). Results indicated that 8th graders watch TV and play video games more than 10th graders; boys play more video games and use interactive social media less than girls; and Black adolescents use most forms of media more often than those from other race/ethnic groups, with the exception of using the computer for school reported most often by Asian adolescents. Mean differences showed that adolescents who spend more time on homework spend more time using the computer for school, and spend less time watching weekday TV, playing video games, and talking on the phone. Adolescents with higher grades spend more time using the computer for school and spend less time on all other types of technology and interactive social media, except for watching weekend TV. Multivariable logistic regression results indicate that watching TV on a weekday was consistently negatively associated with academic outcomes and using the computer for school was consistently positively associated with academic outcomes.
Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Patrick, Megan E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2018.
The end of convergence in developmental patterns of frequent marijuana use from ages 18 to 30: An analysis of cohort change from 1976–2016.
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Background: This study examines the extent to which the developmental pattern of frequent marijuana use prevalence from ages 18 to 30 (overall and by gender) has varied across historical time (cohort groups) using data from a national sample of US young adults. Methods: Self-reported data on frequent marijuana use (use on 20+ occasions in the past 30 days) from modal ages 18 to 30 were obtained from 58,059 individuals from 29 sequential cohorts (graduating high school classes of 1976–2004) participating in the Monitoring the Future study. Time-varying effect modeling was used to model cohort group differences in developmental patterns of frequent use overall and by gender. Results: Developmental patterns of frequent marijuana use prevalence varied meaningfully across cohort groups. Frequent use at age 18 differed significantly across cohort groups as expected based on national data. Among earlier cohort groups (reaching age 30 during 1987–2008), developmental patterns converged by age 30 to relatively low frequent marijuana use prevalence. In contrast, among cohort groups reaching age 30 during 2008–2016, frequent marijuana use at age 30 was significantly higher than all previous cohort groups. Observed cohort differences did not vary significantly by gender. Conclusions: Cross-cohort convergence in developmental patterns of frequent marijuana use prevalence by age 30 was not observed among recent cohort groups, among whom age 30 frequent marijuana use prevalence was at the highest levels observed since the study began. Higher frequent marijuana use prevalence in late young adulthood has meaningful health risk and service provision implications.
Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Patrick, Megan E.
2018.
U.S. adolescent alcohol use by race/ethnicity: Consumption and perceived need to reduce/stop use.
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Understanding racial/ethnic drinking patterns and service provision preferences is critical for deciding how best to use limited alcohol prevention, intervention, and treatment resources. We used nationally representative data from 150,727 U.S. high school seniors from 2005 to 2016 to examine differences in a range of alcohol use behaviors and the felt need to reduce or stop alcohol use based on detailed racial/ethnic categories, both before and after controlling for key risk/protective factors. Native students reported particularly high use but corresponding high felt need to reduce/stop use. White and dual-endorsement students reported high use but low felt need to stop/reduce alcohol use.
Martz, Meghan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Patrick, Megan E.; Kloska, Deborah D.
2018.
“I Am So Bored!”: Prevalence Rates and Sociodemographic and Contextual Correlates of High Boredom Among American Adolescents.
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Adolescent boredom is associated with maladaptation and negative developmental outcomes, yet little is known about the prevalence and correlates of high boredom. Drawing from a broad psychosocial framework, the present study examined rates of high boredom and sociodemographic and contextual correlates among nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders (N = 21,173; 51.8% female) from the Monitoring the Future survey. Results indicate that approximately 20% of adolescents reported high levels of boredom. Those who were more likely to report high boredom were eighth graders; females; youth who identified as Black, Biracial, or Native American/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander; rural youth; and youth of lower socioeconomic status. Results of multivariable logistic regression analyses show significant associations between high boredom and many elements of school, parent, peer, and extracurricular contexts, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. Findings highlight the pervasiveness of high boredom among American youth and may benefit prevention and Martz et al. 689 intervention efforts by identifying multiple contextual associations with adolescent boredom.
Patrick, Megan E.; Azar, Beth
2018.
High-Intensity Drinking..
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Binge drinking thresholds have long been set at four or more drinks for women and five or more drinks for men over the course of a few hours. However, a significant number of people regularly consume much higher amounts of alcohol: double or even triple the standard binge drinking threshold. Researchers have begun to distinguish between typical binge drinking and this kind of "high-intensity drinking," which is common among certain types of binge drinkers and is often associated with special occasions, including holidays, sporting events, and, notably, 21st birthdays. To understand the social and physical influences of alcohol consumption, it is important for researchers to set standard definitions for high-intensity drinking and distinguish it from other types of alcohol use.
Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Staff, Jeremy; Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.
2017.
Adolescent adaptation before, during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the USA.
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© 2016 International Union of Psychological Science This study examines the impact of the “Great Recession” (from December 2007 to June 2009) on 8th and 10th graders in the USA, using annual nationally representative data from the Monitoring the Future study. Historical changes in youth adjustment (self-esteem, depressed mood, risk taking, aggression and property crime), school achievement (grade point average [GPA], time spent on homework and educational expectations) and structured and unstructured activities (volunteering, employment, sports and evenings out for fun) were examined between 1991 and 2014. Overall, there were only slight changes in mean levels of adjustment, achievement and most youth activities. However, the percentage of youth working during the school year did decline during the Great Recession. Several longer-term trends were also evident, though not directly tied to the Great Recession. These include an increase in GPA, a decrease in time spent on homework, rising educational expectations and more time spent volunteering. Future work should assess how the shift to unpaid work activities (e.g. volunteering and internships) among youth is impacting the transition from school to work in the contemporary economy, and whether the Great Recession had deleterious impacts for younger children or among youth whose parents lost work or had their homes foreclosed.
Patrick, Megan E.; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J.; Kloska, Deborah D.; Maggs, Jennifer L.; Lanza, Stephanie T.
2017.
Age-related changes in associations between reasons for alcohol use and high-intensity drinking across young adulthood.
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OBJECTIVE Analyses focus on whether self-reported reasons for drinking alcohol change in their associations with high-intensity drinking across the transition to adulthood. METHOD Self-report data on high-intensity drinking (10+ drinks) collected from the national Monitoring the Future study in 2005 to 2014 from those ages 18-26 were used (N = 2,664 [60% women] for all drinkers and 1,377 for heavy episodic [5+] drinkers; up to 6,541 person-waves). Time-varying effect modeling examined changes in the direction and magnitude of associations between eight reasons for drinking and high-intensity alcohol use across continuous age. RESULTS Four reasons to drink showed quite stable associations with high-intensity drinking across age: drinking to get away from problems, to get high, to relax, and to sleep. Associations between two reasons and high-intensity drinking decreased with age: anger/frustration and to have a good time. The association between drinking because of boredom and high-intensity drinking increased with age. Drinking because it tastes good had a weak association with high-intensity drinking. Among heavy episodic drinkers, reasons for use also differentiated high-intensity drinking, with two exceptions: drinking to have a good time and to relax did not distinguish drinking 10+ drinks from drinking 5-9 drinks. CONCLUSIONS Reasons for drinking are differentially associated with high-intensity drinking, compared with any other drinking and compared with lower intensity heavy drinking, across age during the transition to adulthood. Intervention programs seeking to mitigate alcohol-related harms should focus on reasons for use when they are the most developmentally salient.
Patrick, Megan E.; Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Miech, Richard A.; Schulenberg, John E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2017.
Age-Specific Prevalence of Binge and High-Intensity Drinking Among U.S. Young Adults: Changes from 2005 to 2015.
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Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism Background: This study examined changes during the past decade, from 2005 to 2015, in binge and high-intensity drinking in 7 separate age groups of U.S. 12th graders and young adults. Methods: National longitudinal data (N = 6,711) from Monitoring the Future were used to examine trends in consuming 5+, 10+, and 15+ drinks on the same occasion in the past 2 weeks from ages 18 to 29/30 overall and by gender. Results were compared with trends in past 12-month and 30-day alcohol use for the same age groups. Results: Between 2005 and 2015, binge (5+) and high-intensity drinking (10+, 15+) generally decreased for individuals in their early 20s, remained somewhat stable for individuals in their mid-20s, and increased for individuals at the end of young adulthood (age 29/30). The observed historical trends in binge and high-intensity drinking were similar to those for past 12-month and past 30-day alcohol use for those aged 18 to 20, but diverged for most other age groups in young adulthood. Trends were generally similar for men and women, except that the increase in prevalence began earlier in young adulthood for women than for men. Conclusions: Binge and high-intensity drinking among U.S. 12th graders and young adults are dynamic phenomena. Prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing the harms resulting from 5+, 10+, and 15+ drinking should acknowledge and focus on differences in trends in these behaviors by age and gender.
Stern, Stephanie A.; Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Patrick, Megan E.
2017.
Beverage-specific patterns of 5+ alcoholic drink consumption by young adults in the U.S..
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Young adult binge drinking prevalence has been widely researched. However, beverage-specific binge drinking rates for beer, liquor, wine, and wine coolers have not yet been documented for this age group. This study examines consumption of specific beverages (i.e., 5+ drinks in a row in the past two weeks) by young adults aged 19/20. Data from the national Monitoring the Future study were collected one or two years after high school from 2004 to 2014 (n = 2004). Logistic regression was used to examine associations between beverage-specific 5+ drinking and gender, race/ethnicity, parent education, college status, and cohort year. Overall 5+ drinking in the past two weeks was reported by 31.4% of young adults. Beverage-specific 5+ drinking was most common with liquor (22.6%) and beer (22.4%), followed by wine (4.5%) and wine coolers (3.0%). Men were more likely than women to engage in 5+ drinking with beer and liquor; women were more likely than men to do so with wine and wine coolers. Beverage-specific patterns differed by college attendance. Compared to four-year college students, two-year college/votech students were less likely to have 5+ drinks of liquor or wine, and more likely to have 5+ wine coolers; those not in college were less likely to have 5+ drinks of liquor and more likely to have 5+ wine coolers. Differences in beverage-specific 5+ drinking by gender and college enrollment suggest that intervention efforts should focus on the beverages that are most commonly consumed at high levels within specific early young adult populations.
Veliz, Philip T.; Schulenberg, John E.; Patrick, Megan E.; Kloska, Deborah D.; McCabe, Sean Esteban; Zarrett, Nicole
2017.
Competitive sports participation in high school and subsequent substance use in young adulthood: Assessing differences based on level of contact.
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© 2015, © The Author(s) 2015. The objective of this study is to examine how participation in different types of competitive sports (based on level of contact) during high school is associated with substance use 1 to 4 years after the 12th grade. The analysis uses nationally representative samples of 12th graders from the Monitoring the Future Study, who were followed 1 to 4 years after the 12th grade. The longitudinal sample consisted of 970 12th graders from six recent cohorts (2006–2011). The analyses, which controlled for 12th grade substance use, school difficulties, time with friends, and socio-demographic characteristics, found that respondents who participated in at least one competitive sport during the 12th grade had greater odds of binge drinking during the past two weeks (AOR = 2.04; 95% CI = 1.43, 2.90) 1 to 4 years after the 12th grade, when compared to their peers who did not participate in sports during their 12th grade year. Moreover, respondents who participated in high-contact sports (i.e. football, ice hockey, lacrosse, and wrestling) had greater odds of binge drinking (AOR = 1.80; 95% CI = 1.18, 2.72), and engaging in marijuana use during the past 30 days (AOR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.12, 2.93) 1 to 4 years after the 12th grade when compared to their peers who did not participate in these types of sports during their 12th grade year. Accordingly, the findings indicate important distinctions in sport participation experiences on long-term substance use risk that can help inform potential interventions among young athletes.
Patrick, Megan E.; Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Miech, Richard A.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2017.
Current High-Intensity Drinking Among Eighth and Tenth Grade Students in the U.S..
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Introduction This study assessed the prevalence of current high-intensity drinking (i.e., having ten or more drinks in a row in the past 2 weeks) among national samples of U.S. eighth and tenth grade students (at modal ages 14 and 16 years, respectively). Methods Data on high-intensity drinking were provided by 10,210 students participating in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study in 2016, and analyzed in 2016–2017. Prevalence levels and interactions between grade and key covariates were estimated using procedures that adjusted for the Monitoring the Future study's complex sampling design. Results Approximately 2% of adolescents reported current high-intensity drinking, with significant differences by grade (1.2% of eighth graders; 3.1% of tenth graders) and gender (1.7% female; 2.3% male). High-intensity drinking was significantly higher among eighth and tenth grade students who reported any cigarette or marijuana use than among students who reported never using either substance. Conclusions A meaningful percentage of young adolescents in the U.S. engage in high-intensity drinking.
Lee, Christine M.; Cadigan, Jennifer M.; Patrick, Megan E.
2017.
Differences in reporting of perceived acute effects of alcohol use, marijuana use, and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana use.
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Background Although there are serious negative harms associated with simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use, little is known about the self-reported acute effects of SAM use and how they may be similar to or different than effects experienced when using alcohol or marijuana only. The current study examines the perceived acute effects of SAM use, compared to using alcohol or marijuana only, as well as demographic and substance use predictors of overall SAM effects. Methods Participants were a community sample of young adults ages 18–23 participating in a longitudinal study on social role transitions and substance use during young adulthood. Young adults who reported SAM use at least once in their lifetime were selected for the present analyses (N = 315; mean age = 21.42; 58% female) and reported the effects they experienced from typical alcohol use, marijuana use, and SAM use. Results There were significant differences in the extent to which young adults perceived the effects depending on the substances used. Most effects (i.e., clumsy, confused, dizzy, difficulty concentrating) were rated strongest when engaging in SAM use, compared to typical alcohol or marijuana use alone. Feeling high and feeling marijuana effects were rated strongest when engaging in marijuana use alone compared to SAM use, but feeling drunk was greater during SAM use compared to alcohol use alone. Greater alcohol use and increased time spent high during typical SAM use were associated with greater overall SAM effects. Conclusions When young adults engage in SAM use they report experiencing greater negative physiological and cognitive effects.
Terry-Mcelrath, Yvonne M.; Stern, Stephanie A.; Patrick, Megan E.
2017.
Do alcohol use reasons and contexts differentiate adolescent high-intensity drinking? Data from U.S. high school seniors, 2005-2016..
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The purpose of this study was to examine associations between (a) self-reported reasons for and contexts of alcohol use and (b) high-intensity drinking (i.e., having 10+ drinks in a row in the past 2 weeks) among national samples of U.S. 12th grade students. Data were obtained from 16,902 students who reported any past 12-month alcohol use from nationally representative annual 12th grade student samples from 2005–2016. When asked about drinking behavior during the past 2 weeks, 72% reported consuming less than 5 drinks at most during 1 drinking occasion; 14% reported 5–9 drinks, 7% reported 10–14 drinks, and 7% reported 15+ drinks. Adolescent drinkers in all categories (<5, 5–9, 10–14, and 15+ drinks) endorsed 'to have a good time' as the most prevalent reason for alcohol use, and 'at a party' as the most prevalent context of alcohol use. However, high-intensity drinking was particularly likely among adolescents drinking for coping, compulsive use, and drug effect reasons, as well as those who enjoyed the taste. Having 15+ drinks (vs. 10–14 drinks) was particularly associated with compulsive use and enjoying the taste. The relative risk of any high-intensity drinking, and of higher levels of high-intensity drinking involvement, increased with the total number of reasons and contexts endorsed. Alcohol appears to serve a larger number of functions for high-intensity drinking adolescents than non-high-intensity drinking youth. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved)
Patrick, Megan E.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Maggs, Jennifer L.
2017.
Early life predictors of alcohol-related attitudes among 11-year-old never drinkers.
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Alcohol-related attitudes are evident before children have personal experience drinking alcohol and represent key proximal predictors of alcohol use, but relatively little is known about how early life characteristics predict these attitudes. Among late childhood lifetime alcohol abstainers (M age = 10.67 years; 51% girls), we examine predictors of positive alcohol expectancies and perceived risk of alcohol use. Data from the Millennium Cohort Study, an ongoing nationally representative longitudinal study of children born in the UK, were available from 11,097 children who completed the self-report survey at modal age 11 and reported never drinking alcohol. A sequential structural model suggested that sociodemographic factors were distal predictors of age 11 alcohol attitudes that operated, in part, through family and child risk factors (measured at ages 3 to 7). Alcohol attitudes varied by sociodemographics; for example, boys had higher positive expectancies than girls and White British children had higher positive expectancies and lower perceived risk than Black British and Asian British children. In terms of family factors, parent alcohol problems predicted children's lower perceived risk, and higher parent-child conflict predicted more positive expectancies. For child factors, children's greater cognitive skills predicted higher perceived risk, and internalizing problems predicted more positive expectancies. Indirect effects from sociodemographics through parent-child conflict and internalizing problems predicted positive expectancies; indirect effects through parent alcohol problems and cognitive skills predicted perceived risk. Future research should delve further into mechanisms underlying the development of alcohol attitudes and their potential as malleable targets for prevention.
Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd D.
2017.
E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students.
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Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine vaping as a predictor of future cigarette smoking among youth with and without previous cigarette smoking experience. A secondary aim is to investigate whether vaping may desensitise youth to the dangers of smoking.METHODS: Analysis of prospective longitudinal panel data from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. The analysis is based on 347 12th grade students who were part of a randomly selected subsample that completed in-school surveys in 2014 and were resurveyed 1-year later.RESULTS: Among youth who had never smoked a cigarette by 12th grade, baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (relative risk (RR)=4.78) more likely to report past-year cigarette smoking at follow-up, even among youth who reported the highest possible level of perceived risk for cigarette smoking at baseline. Among 12th grade students who had smoked in the past but had not recently smoked at baseline, recent vapers were twice (RR=2.15) as likely to report smoking in the past 12 months at the follow-up. Vaping did not predict cessation of smoking among recent smokers at baseline. Among never-smokers at baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (RR=4.73) more likely to move away from the perception of cigarettes as posing a 'great risk' of harm, a finding consistent with a desensitisation process.CONCLUSIONS: These results contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting vaping as a one-way bridge to cigarette smoking among youth. Vaping as a risk factor for future smoking is a strong, scientifically-based rationale for restricting youth access to e-cigarettes.
Total Results: 117