MPC Member Publications

This database contains a listing of population studies publications written by MPC Members. Anyone can add a publication by an MPC student, faculty, or staff member to this database; new citations will be reviewed and approved by MPC administrators.

Full Citation

Title: Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2015

ISSN: 0002-9602

DOI: 10.1086/681962

PMID: 28515496

Abstract: Data on age-sequenced trajectories of individuals' attributes are used for a growing number of research purposes. However, there is no consensus about which method to use to identify the number of discrete trajectories in a population or to assign individuals to a specific trajectory group. We modeled real and simulated trajectory data using "naïve" methods, optimal matching, grade of membership models, and three types of finite mixture models. We found that these methods produced inferences about the number of trajectories that frequently differ (1) from one another and (2) from the truth as represented by simulation parameters. We also found that they differed in the assignment of individuals to trajectory groups. In light of these findings, we argue that researchers should interpret results based on these methods cautiously, neither reifying point estimates about the number of trajectories nor treating individuals' trajectory group assignments as certain.

Url: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28515496

Url: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5431596

Url: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/681962

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Warren, John Robert; Luo, Liying; Halpern-Manners, Andrew; Raymo, James M; Palloni, Alberto

Periodical (Full): American Journal of Sociology

Issue: 6

Volume: 120

Pages: 1809-1856

Countries:

IPUMS NHGIS NAPP IHIS ATUS Terrapop