Full Citation
Title: Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2015
ISBN:
ISSN: 0002-9602
DOI: 10.1086/681962
NSFID:
PMCID:
PMID: 28515496
Abstract: Data on age-sequenced trajectories of individuals' attributes are used for a growing number of research purposes. However, there is no consensus about which method to use to identify the number of discrete trajectories in a population or to assign individuals to a specific trajectory group. We modeled real and simulated trajectory data using "naïve" methods, optimal matching, grade of membership models, and three types of finite mixture models. We found that these methods produced inferences about the number of trajectories that frequently differ (1) from one another and (2) from the truth as represented by simulation parameters. We also found that they differed in the assignment of individuals to trajectory groups. In light of these findings, we argue that researchers should interpret results based on these methods cautiously, neither reifying point estimates about the number of trajectories nor treating individuals' trajectory group assignments as certain.
Url: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28515496
Url: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5431596
Url: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/681962
User Submitted?: No
Authors: Warren, John Robert; Luo, Liying; Halpern-Manners, Andrew; Raymo, James M; Palloni, Alberto
Periodical (Full): American Journal of Sociology
Issue: 6
Volume: 120
Pages: 1809-1856
Countries: