MPC Member Publications

This database contains a listing of population studies publications written by MPC Members. Anyone can add a publication by an MPC student, faculty, or staff member to this database; new citations will be reviewed and approved by MPC administrators.

Full Citation

Title: Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2019

ISSN: 20452322

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9

PMID: 30679458

Abstract: Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

Url: www.nature.com/scientificreports/

User Submitted?: No

Authors: McGowan, Craig J.; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael A.; Apfeldorf, Karyn M.; Ben-Nun, Michal; Brooks, Logan C.; Convertino, Matteo; Erraguntla, Madhav; Farrow, David C.; Freeze, John; Ghosh, Saurav; Hyun, Sangwon; Kandula, Sasikiran; Lega, Joceline; Liu, Yang; Michaud, Nicholas; Morita, Haruka; Niemi, Jarad; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Ray, Evan L.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Riley, Pete; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Vespignani, Alessandro; Zhang, Qian; Reed, Carrie; Rosenfeld, Roni; Ulloa, Nehemias; Will, Katie; Turtle, James; Bacon, David; Riley, Steven; Yang, Wan

Periodical (Full): Scientific Reports

Issue: 1

Volume: 9

Pages: 1-13

Countries:

IPUMS NHGIS NAPP IHIS ATUS Terrapop