Full Citation
Title: Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: a retrospective study.
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2017
ISBN:
ISSN: 2542-5196
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5
NSFID:
PMCID:
PMID: 29057392
Abstract: BACKGROUND Occurrence, severity and geographic extent of droughts are anticipated to increase under climate change, but the health consequences of drought conditions are unknown. We estimate risks of cardiovascular and respiratory-related hospitalization and mortality associated with drought conditions for the western U.S. elderly population. METHODS For counties in the western U.S. (N=618) and for the period 2000 to 2013, we use data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to identify: 1) full drought periods; 2) non-drought periods; and 3) worsening drought periods stratified by low- and high-severity. We use Medicare claims to calculate daily rates of cardiovascular admissions, respiratory admissions, and deaths among adults 65 years or older. Using a two-stage hierarchical model, we estimated the percentage change in health risks when comparing drought to non-drought period days controlling for daily weather and seasonal trends. FINDINGS On average there were 2·1 million days and 0·6 million days classified as non-drought periods and drought periods, respectively. Compared to non-drought periods, respiratory admissions significantly decreased by -1·99% (95% posterior interval (PI): -3·56, -0·38) during the full drought period, but not during worsening drought conditions. Mortality risk significantly increased by 1·55% (95% PI: 0·17, 2·95) during the high-severity worsening drought period, but not the full drought period. Cardiovascular admissions did not differ significantly during either drought or worsening drought periods. In counties where drought occurred less frequently, we found risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality to increase during worsening drought conditions. INTERPRETATIONS Drought conditions increased risk of mortality during high-severity worsening drought, but decreased the risk of respiratory admissions during full drought periods among older adults. Counties that experience fewer drought events show larger risk for mortality and cardiovascular disease. This research describes an understudied environmental association with global health significance.
Url: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29057392
Url: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5646697
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Authors: Berman, Jesse David; Ebisu, Keita; Peng, Roger D; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L
Periodical (Full): The Lancet. Planetary health
Issue: 1
Volume: 1
Pages: e17-e25
Countries: