MPC Member Publications

This database contains a listing of population studies publications written by MPC Members. Anyone can add a publication by an MPC student, faculty, or staff member to this database; new citations will be reviewed and approved by MPC administrators.

Full Citation

Title: A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2018

ISSN: 0022-1694

DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2015.12.036

Abstract: We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.

Url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415009841

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Podestá, Guillermo P.; Bert, Federico E.

Periodical (Full): Journal of Hydrology

Issue:

Volume: 556

Pages: 835-846

Countries:

IPUMS NHGIS NAPP IHIS ATUS Terrapop