MPC Member Publications

This database contains a listing of population studies publications written by MPC Members. Anyone can add a publication by an MPC student, faculty, or staff member to this database; new citations will be reviewed and approved by MPC administrators.

Full Citation

Title: Nonidentifiability in Model Calibration and Implications for Medical Decision Making

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2018

ISSN: 0272-989X

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X18792283

Abstract: Background. Calibration is the process of estimating parameters of a mathematical model by matching model outputs to calibration targets. In the presence of nonidentifiability, multiple parameter sets solve the calibration problem, which may have important implications for decision making. We evaluate the implications of nonidentifiability on the optimal strategy and provide methods to check for nonidentifiability. Methods. We illustrate nonidentifiability by calibrating a 3-state Markov model of cancer relative survival (RS). We performed 2 different calibration exercises: 1) only including RS as a calibration target and 2) adding the ratio between the 2 nondeath states over time as an additional target. We used the Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm to identify parameter sets that best matched the calibration targets. We used collinearity and likelihood profile analyses to check for nonidentifiability. We then estimated the benefit of a hypothetical treatment in terms of life expectancy gains using different, b...

Url: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X18792283

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; MacLehose, Richard F; Peralta, Yadira; Kuntz, Karen M; Enns, Eva A

Periodical (Full): Medical Decision Making

Issue: 7

Volume: 38

Pages: 810-821

Countries:

IPUMS NHGIS NAPP IHIS ATUS Terrapop