MPC Member Publications

This database contains a listing of population studies publications written by MPC Members. Anyone can add a publication by an MPC student, faculty, or staff member to this database; new citations will be reviewed and approved by MPC administrators.

Full Citation

Title: Linear regression metamodeling as a tool to summarize and present simulation model results

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2013

ISSN: 1552-681X; 0272-989X

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X13492014 [doi]

PMID: 23811758

Abstract: BACKGROUND / OBJECTIVE: Modelers lack a tool to systematically and clearly present complex model results, including those from sensitivity analyses. The objective was to propose linear regression metamodeling as a tool to increase transparency of decision analytic models and better communicate their results. METHODS: We used a simplified cancer cure model to demonstrate our approach. The model computed the lifetime cost and benefit of 3 treatment options for cancer patients. We simulated 10,000 cohorts in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and regressed the model outcomes on the standardized input parameter values in a set of regression analyses. We used the regression coefficients to describe measures of sensitivity analyses, including threshold and parameter sensitivity analyses. We also compared the results of the PSA to deterministic full-factorial and one-factor-at-a-time designs. RESULTS: The regression intercept represented the estimated base-case outcome, and the other coefficients described the relative parameter uncertainty in the model. We defined simple relationships that compute the average and incremental net benefit of each intervention. Metamodeling produced outputs similar to traditional deterministic 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analyses but was more reliable since it used all parameter values. CONCLUSIONS: Linear regression metamodeling is a simple, yet powerful, tool that can assist modelers in communicating model characteristics and sensitivity analyses.

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Jalal, H; Dowd, Bryan E; Sainfort, François; Kuntz, Karen M

Periodical (Full): Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making

Issue: 7

Volume: 33

Pages: 880-1769

Countries:

IPUMS NHGIS NAPP IHIS ATUS Terrapop