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Title: The Lethal Connection: Investigating the Relationship of Drought Conditions on Firearm and Nonfirearm Suicides among U.S. Adults The Lethal Connection: Investigating the Relationship of Drought Conditions on Firearm
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2025
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DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175440499.96874552/v1
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Abstract: Drought is one of the most widespread and disruptive natural hazards globally, with environmental and societal effects that may increase psychological distress. Yet, its association with suicide in the U.S. remains understudied. We examined the relationship between drought and suicide mortality across the contiguous U.S. Drought severity was measured using the Evaporative Demand Drought Index, and suicide data from the National Center for Health Statistics. We used Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and absolute risk differences (ARDs), with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and urbanicity. From 2000 to 2018, the U.S. recorded 350,434 firearm-related and 323,225 non-firearm suicide deaths. Drought affected 37.4% of county-months, and both suicide types were positively associated with drought-especially under severe conditions. For firearm suicides, worsening drought was linked to an IRR of 1.109 (95% CI: 1.091-1.128) and ARD of 0.704 (95% CI: 0.595-0.811); improving drought had an IRR of 1.094 (95% CI: 1.076-1.112) and ARD of 0.608 (95% CI: 0.501-0.715). For non-firearm suicides, worsening drought was associated with an IRR of 1.057 (95% CI: 1.037-1.077) and ARD of 0.347 (95% CI: 0.232-0.461), while improving drought had an IRR of 1.073 (95% CI: 1.054-1.093) and ARD of 0.456 (95% CI: 0.344-0.568). Severe drought was significantly linked to higher suicide mortality, especially firearm-related deaths among older adults, women, and those in non-metro areas. Findings highlight the need to integrate mental health support into drought preparedness for vulnerable populations. Hosted file AGU_Manuscript_Abadi_June24th_2025.docx available at https://authorea.com/users/933540/ articles/1311569-the-lethal-connection-investigating-the-relationship-of-drought-conditions-on-firearm-and-nonfirearm-suicides-among-us adults Hosted file AGU_SuppInfo_Abadi_June24_2025.docx available at https://authorea.com/users/933540/articles/ 1311569-the-lethal-connection-investigating-the-relationship-of-drought-conditions-on-firearm-and-nonfirearm-suicides-among-us adults 1 20 Key Points: 21 • Firearm and nonfirearm suicides in the U.S. increase during all drought phases, 22 especially during severe drought conditions. 23 • The strongest associations were observed among older adults, women, and rural 24 populations. 25 • Drought-related suicide risk underscores the need for mental health integration into 26 early warning and mitigation efforts. 27 Abstract 28 Drought is one of the most widespread and disruptive natural hazards globally, with 29 environmental and societal effects that may increase psychological distress. Yet, its association 30 with suicide in the U.S. remains understudied. We examined the relationship between drought 31 and suicide mortality across the contiguous U.S. Drought severity was measured using the 32 Evaporative Demand Drought Index, and suicide data from the National Center for Health 33 Statistics. We used Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) 34 and absolute risk differences (ARDs), with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses were stratified by 35 age, sex, and urbanicity. From 2000 to 2018, the U.S. recorded 350,434 firearm-related and 36 323,225 non-firearm suicide deaths. Drought affected 37.4% of county-months, and both 37 suicide types were positively associated with drought-especially under severe conditions. For 38 firearm suicides, worsening drought was linked to an IRR of 1.109 (95% CI: 1.091-1.128) and 39 ARD of 0.704 (95% CI: 0.595-0.811); improving drought had an IRR of 1.094 (95% CI: 1.076-40 1.112) and ARD of 0.608 (95% CI: 0.501-0.715). For non-firearm suicides, worsening drought 41 was associated with an IRR of 1.057 (95% CI: 1.037-1.077) and ARD of 0.347 (95% CI: 0.232-42 0.461), while improving drought had an IRR of 1.073 (95% CI: 1.054-1.093) and ARD of 0.456 43 (95% CI: 0.344-0.568). Severe drought was significantly linked to higher suicide mortality, 44 especially firearm-related deaths among older adults, women, and those in non-metro areas. 45 Findings highlight the need to integrate mental health support into drought preparedness for 46 vulnerable populations. 47 48 Plain Language Summary 49 This study explores how drought, a prolonged period of unusually dry weather, affects suicide 50 rates in the United States. Using data from all counties between 2000 and 2018, we analyzed 51 over 670,000 deaths by suicide to determine if dry conditions were linked to higher risk. We 52 found that both firearm and nonfirearm suicides increased during all stages of drought, with 53 the highest risk seen during the most severe drought periods. Certain groups-including older 54 adults, women, and people living in rural areas-were more affected. The risk was especially 55 high for suicides involving firearms. These findings suggest that dry weather may create or 56 worsen stress, especially for people who are already vulnerable. By better understanding when 57 and where these risks increase, we can improve public health strategies. Adding mental health 58 support to drought preparation and response plans could help save lives, particularly in rural 59 communities and during times of severe environmental stress. 60 61
Url: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175440499.96874552/v1
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Authors: Abadi, Azar M; Gwon, Yeongjin; Smith, Melissa; Berman, Jesse; Rau, Austin; Leeper, Ronald D; Rennie, Jared; Munde, Siddhi; Jalalzadeh Fard, Babak; Eugene Bell, Jesse; Smith, Melissa J; Berman, Jesse D; Fard, Babak J; Bell, Jesse E
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