Full Citation
Title: Is Covid-19 Mortality "Like the Flu"? A Cumulative Death Rates Comparison
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2023
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DOI: 10.1101/2023.04.24.23289045
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PMID: 37162957
Abstract: It has been common both to make and to resist comparisons that equate the Covid-19 pandemic to influenza. We take the comparison between Covid-19 and flu seriously by asking how many years of influenza and pneumonia deaths are needed for cumulative deaths to those two causes to equal the cumulative toll of the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and February 2023-that is, three years of pandemic deaths. We find that in one state alone-Hawaii-three years of Covid-19 mortality is equivalent to influenza and pneumonia mortality in the three years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic. For all other states, at least nine years of flu and pneumonia are needed to match Covid-19; for the United States as a whole, seventeen years are needed; and for four states, more than 21 years (the maximum observable) are needed. These results provide an easy-to-understand calibration of flu as a heuristic for Covid-19, and vice versa.
Url: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37162957/
Url: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC10168500
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Authors: Wrigley-Field, Elizabeth; Himmelstern, Jessie
Periodical (Full): medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
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