Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is common in women and also the main cause of cervical cancer. Based on a dynamic compartmental model, we aimed to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies that combined cervical cancer screening and HPV schoolgirl vaccination for Chinese women. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by comparing modeled scenarios to the status quo, where a 3-y cervical cancer screening program remained at a 20% coverage and without a universal HPV vaccination program. Our study demonstrated that increasing screening coverage from 20% to 50% would reduce the high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) prevalence to 5.4%, whereas a universal schoolgirl vaccination program using the quadrivalent vaccine (qHPV) with a coverage of 50% would reduce the prevalence to 2.9% by 2069. Scaling-up the cervical screening coverage to 50% will prevent 16,012 (95% CI: 8,791 to 25,913) Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) per year, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$ 10,958 (95% CI: $169 to $26,973)/DALY prevented. At the current qHPV price, vaccinating 50% of school girls will prevent 13,854 (95% CI: 8,355 to 20,776) DALYs/year, but the corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, US$ 83,043, 95% CI: $52,234 to $138,025) exceeds cost-effectiveness threshold (i.e., 3 times GDP per-capita of China: $30,792). The qHPV vaccine requires at least a 50% price reduction to be cost-effective. Vaccinating schoolgirls will result in a large population health benefit in the long term, but such a universal HPV vaccination program can only be cost-effective with a substantial price reduction.

This contribution to the special issue celebrating Dr. Kane’s legacy in the Journal of Gerontological Social Work highlights her significant scholarly achievements in the measurement of quality of life in long-term care. Following a synthesis of Dr. Kane’s groundbreaking work in this area, we summarize how her study of the measurement of quality of life has served as the foundation for significant practice/policy advancements. We conclude that Dr. Kane and her ongoing legacy in the rigorous measurement of quality of life has achieved her ultimate aspiration: the elevation of quality of life as the central concern when selecting, using, delivering, and valuing long-term care.

<p>The 2019 Minnesota Legislature requested the Department of Human Services (DHS) and Minnesota Board on Aging to develop and administer a report card for assisted living (AL), including conducting annual resident and family surveys in Minnesota AL settings. This presentation includes the perspectives of representatives from MN DHS and Vital Research, as well as the University of Minnesota team who worked together to develop survey items, carry out the cognitive testing, and conduct analyses. Survey items were developed from published literature and existing tools on assisted living quality and underwent testing with MN stakeholders and cognitive testing with MN AL residents. Pilot testing assessed any further changes that needed to take place for resident and family satisfaction with AL quality (n=400). Presenters will share lessons learned with implementing the new tools and different aspects of the of the report card development and implementation process as well as the survey findings.</p>

What services are available and where racial and ethnic minorities receive long-term services and supports (LTSS) have resulted in a lower quality of care and life for racial/ethnic minority users. These disparities are only likely to worsen during the COVID-19 pandemic, as the pandemic has disproportionately affected racial and ethnic minority communities both in the rate of infection and virus-related mortality. By examining these disparities in the context of the pandemic, we bring to light the challenges and issues faced in LTSS by minority communities with regard to this virus as well as the disparities in LTSS that have always existed.

Objectives: This study examines racial/ethnic differences in self-rated health (SRH) and sense of control among older adults receiving publicly funded home- and community-based services (HCBS) and tests the mediating role of functional, emotional, and financial stressors. Methods: Data are from 2015 National Core Indicators-Aging and Disability Survey collected from face-to-face interviews with 1936 older adults aged 65 years or older receiving HCBS in Minnesota. Path analysis based on logistic regression was used. Results: Racial/ethnic minority HCBS users had lower SRH and sense of control than white participants, with Asian participants reporting the lowest scores. Whereas functional impairment was a common explanatory factor for the racial/ethnic differences, negative mood and financial strain were mediators for Asian and Hispanic/Latino participants, respectively. Discussion: Racial/ethnic disparities in well-being exist among older HCBS users, with different mediators at play. Customized services are needed to meet diverse needs of older adults of different racial/ethnic groups.

Great gains have been made in providing researchers geo-spatial data that can be combined with population health data. This development is crucial given concerns over the human health outcomes associated with a changing climate. Merging population and environmental data remains both conceptually and technically challenging because of a large range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we propose a framework that addresses and advances both conceptual and technical aspects of population-environment research. This framework can be useful for considering how any time or space-based environmental occurrence influences population health outcomes and can be used to guide different data aggregation strategies. The primary consideration discussed here is how to properly model the space and time effects of environmental context on individual-level health outcomes, specifically maternal, child and reproductive health outcomes. The influx of geospatial health data and highly detailed environmental data, often at daily scales, provide an opportunity for population-environment researchers to move towards a more theoretically and analytically sound approach for studying environment and health linkages.

Background:Relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) typically starts in early- to mid-adulthood, yet the trajectory of disease activity over the subsequent lifetime remains poorly defined. Previous ...

Purpose: Girls on the Run is an after-school physical activity-based positive youth development program designed to enhance girls’ social, psychological, and physical development. We evaluated the effectiveness of the program by employing a longitudinal design and mixed methods. Methods: Girls (N = 203; aged 8–11 y) completed survey measures of positive youth development constructs (competence, confidence, connection, character, and caring), physical activity, and sedentary behavior prior to, at the end of, and 3 months after the season. Subsamples of girls, coaches, caregivers, and school personnel participated in focus groups. Coaches completed information about their team’s community impact project and number of girls who completed the season-ending 5k. Results: The full sample improved in confidence and connection, whereas girls who started below the preseason average showed the greatest gains from preseason to postseason on all measures, and scores were maintained or continued to improve at follow-up. All stakeholders in focus groups corroborated evidence of season-long improvement in social and emotional behaviors and health outcomes. Involvement in the community impact project contributed to girls’ growth in character and empathy skills. Conclusion: Findings provide empirical evidence that Girls on the Run is effective in promoting positive youth development, including season-long and lasting change in competence, confidence, connection, character, caring, and physical activity, especially among girls who exhibited lower preseason scores than their peers.

Family satisfaction, while recognized as important, is frequently missing from validated measures of long-term care quality. This is the first study to compare family satisfaction across two states using validated measures and to compare the organizational and structural factors associated with higher family satisfaction with nursing home care. Data sources are family satisfaction surveys from Minnesota (MN) and Ohio (OH), linked to facility characteristics from Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reports (CASPER) for both states (N = 378 facilities for MN; N = 926 facilities for OH). Activities and food were among lowest rated items in both states. Relationships with staff were the highest rated domain. Higher occupancy rates, smaller facility size, and non-profit ownership consistently predicted better satisfaction in both states. Our findings show consistent organizational factors associated with family satisfaction and provide further evidence to the validity of family satisfaction as a person-...

The past several decades have seen significant policy efforts to improve the quality of care in nursing homes, but the patient safety movement has largely ignored this setting. In this study we compared nursing homes’ performance on several composite quality measures from Nursing Home Compare, the most prominent recent example of a national policy aimed at improving the quality of nursing home care, to their performance on measures of patient safety in nursing homes such as pressure sores, infections, falls, and medication errors. Although Nursing Home Compare captures some aspects of patient safety, we found the relationship to be weak and somewhat inconsistent, leaving consumers who care about patient safety with little guidance. We recommend that Nursing Home Compare be refined to provide a clearer picture of patient safety and quality of life, allowing consumers to weight these domains according to their preferences and priorities.

Background: The veracity of the association between antibiotic use and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) caused by Escherichia coli O157:H7 has been a topic of debate. We postulated that criteria used to define HUS affect this association. Methods: We reviewed 471 hospitalized E. coli O157:H7 cases reported in Washington State, 2005–2014, to determine HUS status by various case definitions and antibiotic treatment. We used age-adjusted logistic regression models to estimate the effect of treatment on HUS status according to four common, but heterogeneous, definitions: the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) definition, hematology-focused and age-focused definitions from the literature, and hospital diagnosis. Results: Inter-annual variation in antibiotic use was high, but no meaningful change in antibiotic use was observed over this ten-year period. Thirteen percent of cases <18 years-old received antibiotics, compared to 54% of cases ≥18 years-old. The CSTE, hematology-focused, age-focused, and hospital diagnosis definitions identified 149, 57, 74, and 89 cases of HUS, respectively. The association between antibiotic treatment and HUS varied by definition: CSTE odds ratio (OR) 1.57 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98, 2.55]; hematology-focused OR 1.73 (95% CI 0.83, 3.54); age-focused OR 2.29 (95% CI 1.20, 4.39); and hospital diagnosis OR 1.94 (95% CI 1.01, 3.72). Conclusions: Each definition yielded an estimate of the association in the direction of increased risk of HUS with antibiotics. While the range of OR point estimates was relatively small, confidence intervals for two HUS definitions crossed the null and two did not, potentially altering the inference an investigator makes. Discrepant reports of the association between antibiotic use and HUS in the literature might be due in part to the choice of HUS definition, and a consistent definition of HUS should be adopted for research and public health purposes.

Background: Multiple case definitions for post-diarrheal hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+ HUS) associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) are used across public health, research, and clinical practice. Methods: To identify a single definition of D+ HUS for standardized use, we evaluated the comparability and validity of four common, heterogeneous definitions: the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) definition, hematology-focused and age-focused definitions from the literature, and hospital diagnosis. We reviewed medical records from 471 hospitalized E. coli O157:H7 cases reported in Washington State, 2005–2014. We assessed 1) reliability across definitions, 2) comparability of temporal trends, and 3) sensitivity and specificity using an omnibus reference standard, developed using a combination of definition agreement and clinical outcomes. With the standard, we classified cases as definite, borderline, or unlikely/not post-diarrheal D+ HUS. Results: Reliability was highest between the age-focused definition and hospital diagnosis (κ = 0.84), and temporal trends were largely comparable across definitions. For definite D+ HUS cases, the age-focused definition had the highest overall validity [100% sensitivity, 95% confidence interval (CI): 94%, 100%; 96% specificity, 95% CI: 94%, 98%]. The CSTE definition had low specificity (75%, 95% CI: 70%, 79%). Conclusions: In this review, the CSTE definition overestimated the burden of D+ HUS, and the age-focused definition provided the best overall reliability and validity to define post-diarrheal D+ HUS. Disease monitoring and research activities should consider using the age-focused D+ HUS definition.

The often-noted and persistent increased incidence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections in rural areas is not well understood. We used a cohort of E. coli O157:H7 cases reported in Washington, USA, during 2005-2014, along with phylogenomic characterization of the infecting isolates, to identify geographic segregation of and temporal trends in specific phylogenetic lineages of E. coli O157:H7. Kernel estimation and generalized additive models demonstrated that pathogen lineages were spatially segregated during the period of analysis and identified a focus of segregation spanning multiple, predominantly rural, counties for each of the main clinical lineages, Ib, IIa, and IIb. These results suggest the existence of local reservoirs from which humans are infected. We also noted a secular increase in the proportion of lineage IIa and IIb isolates. Spatial segregation by phylogenetic lineage offers the potential to identify local reservoirs and intervene to prevent continued transmission.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is the largest cause of hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). Previous studies proposed that HUS risk varies across the E. coli O157:H7 phylogenetic tree (hypervirulent clade 8), but the role of age in the association is unknown. We determined phylogenetic lineage of E. coli O157:H7 isolates from 1160 culture-confirmed E. coli O157:H7 cases reported in Washington State, 2004-2015. Using generalised estimating equations, we tested the association between phylogenetic lineage and HUS. Age was evaluated as an effect modifier. Among 1082 E. coli O157:H7 cases with both phylogenetic lineage and HUS status (HUS n = 76), stratified analysis suggested effect modification by age. Lineages IIa and IIb, relative to Ib, did not appear associated with HUS in children 0-9-years-old. For cases 10-59-years-old, lineages IIa and IIb appeared to confer increased risk of HUS, relative to lineage Ib. The association reversed in ≥60-year-olds. Results were similar for clade 8. Phylogenetic lineage appears to be associated with HUS risk only among those ≥10-years-old. Among children <10, the age group most frequently affected, lineage does not explain progression to HUS. However, lineage frequency varied across age groups, suggesting differences in exposure and/or early disease manifestation.

BACKGROUND Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods. DISCUSSION Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects. CONCLUSION Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.